My Blog

Welcome to my blog

04/25/21

Planning to implement and showcase two new projects this May

Life is going ok

07/27/20

I'll update this later and upload the Python scripts

No data submitted to the Reich Lab on 7/13 for IMHE's projections

DELPHI: 7.15%, LANL: 5.64%, and IMHE: 4.71%

07/18/20

With COVID and being stuck in at home the last few months, there has been this lingering thought I've been having

Many different COVID projection models are seemingly shown thoughout the media but is there one model that is the most accurate

So I decided to compile some data from Reich Lab's Forecast Hub and whipped up a basic Python script

After implementing a basic CSV reader script and matplotlib graph I got this

Each projection's guess for the next week's cumulative's deaths was taken from the week before and compared in my home state of Arizona

It seems like MIT's projection is bit off but there could be a trend of it becoming more accurate as the reported deaths becomes more and more exponential

All things considered, pretty much all of the projections were pretty accurate and only off by fewer than 200 deaths

The Error Difference between the actual reported deaths for each of the Projections were

DELPHI: 9.49%, LANL: 4.03%, and IMHE: 1.34%

So does that mean the IMHE projection is technically the most accurate

NO, this is just me looking at data and coming up with my own thoughts of the matter, please look into the experts and see their own testing methadology

12/28/19

Wow its been awhile, after my first semester of college I am now given the chance to reflect

I think I did alright, nothing bad but if I am to do well, I really need to focus on balance

I for one will admit that I regret alot of my decisions especially when it comes to social decisions and I wish I could change some of them but nevertheless I made them so I have to stand by to those mistakes

Updates

First podcast episode will be released in early January

10/13/19

Working on the basic HTML/CSS facelift for my website, should be out later tonight

First showcase of full stack skills in a webapp taking a serious subject into a more comical take